| As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so | | | | market leader in any given race: |
| more and more people are looking to profit from horse | | | | 1. Horse and Class: Must have shown the ability or |
| racing by laying horses to lose. But what is the best | | | | obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of |
| strategy? On the face of it, one might think that simply | | | | today's race. |
| betting that the outsider will lose is a quick way to | | | | 2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either |
| make easy money. In reality, the best horse to bet | | | | today's track or one with similar characteristics. |
| against is the race favourite. | | | | 3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form |
| Betting that the outsider at 20/1 will lose will be fine to | | | | over the last few weeks. |
| start with, and doubtless you will soon develop a | | | | 4. Horse and Race Distance: Must have shown the |
| winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than | | | | ability or obvious potential to run competitively over |
| later that 33/1 shot with 'absolutely no chance' will | | | | today's distance. |
| come home in front, and you may well have laid him at | | | | 5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage |
| a price of 52.00 (for example) on Betfair. BOOM! | | | | if applicable. |
| There goes all your hard-earned winnings, and more! | | | | 6. Horse and Going: Must have shown an obvious |
| Generally a horse will be the favourite because it has | | | | ability to handle today's ground. |
| the weight of the market's money behind it, which | | | | 7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% |
| forces the price down. Simple economics. There will be | | | | strike rate on today's track. |
| a point however, where the horse's price is too low | | | | 8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer must have had |
| compared to it's actual chance of winning. Beyond this | | | | at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 |
| 'true' price is where the layers will start to make a | | | | days. |
| profit. | | | | 9. Jockey and Track: Jockey must have at least a |
| So we go ahead with this strategy, and we proceed | | | | 10% strike rate on today's track. |
| to lay every favourite, right? Wrong. | | | | Rating a favourite as 'weak' or otherwise is entirely |
| Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This | | | | subjective, but you may determine (for example) that |
| is how bookmakers have made their profit for | | | | a horse with 3 or more question marks or negatives |
| generations. But they are not priced too low every | | | | over their form would be considered a horse worth |
| time - sometimes a favourite is the most likely horse to | | | | opposing. |
| win a race for very good reason. | | | | As always the question of price will come into the |
| If we took the simplified approach of laying every | | | | equation. A horse with several boxes left to 'tick' in the |
| favourite, after a while betting on the exchanges we | | | | list above may be a favourite in a weak race at 5/1. |
| would remain around the break even point, because | | | | This may be a fair price, and you may not want to get |
| the exchange markets are a very efficient barometer | | | | involved in laying him to lose. |
| of probability. However, after paying commission on | | | | On the other hand, when a 2yo filly steps hoof onto |
| our winnings, we would watch our account slowly | | | | the track for the first time, and is offered at odds-on |
| draining away like water down a plug-hole. Not good. | | | | simply because she is ridden by Frankie Dettori on |
| So how do we know which favourites are true | | | | behalf of the Godolphin training empire, then you may |
| favourites, and which are weak or vulnerable? | | | | want to consider taking her on. |
| One method is to analyse the positive aspects of a | | | | In summary: race favourites are often a profitable |
| horse's form. It will not surprise you to learn that more | | | | source of potential Lay Bets, as they are often |
| favourites win when they have fewer question marks | | | | 'over-bet' and offered at prices too low compared to |
| against them. This is not rocket science, but taking the | | | | their actual chance of winning. Take the time to |
| time to separate strong contenders from weak | | | | analyse key aspects of the horse's form and judge |
| favourites will give you the 'edge' to make that | | | | whether they are a 'strong' or 'weak' favourite. If you |
| all-important profit. | | | | decide they are vulnerable to defeat and the price is |
| Below is a list of form criteria you can apply to the | | | | short enough, then you have identified a good lay bet. |